Türkiye
Pakistan
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
Malaysia
United Arab EmiratesMacro intelligence for Islamic economies.
A clearer perspective.
Independent analysis, economic data and original forecasts. The context you need to see what comes next.
We focus on seven economically and strategically significant Islamic economies, while extending our coverage to other markets when developments warrant.
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And periodic coverage of the other Islamic economies on an as-needed basis
(Inflation Rate, GDP Growth, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate)
Islamic economies, as needed.
Transparent sources.
Latest thinking.
Egypt - PolEcon Insights (October 2026)
We present updated Egypt PolEcon Insights for October 2026.
Turkiye PolEcon Insights (October 2026)
We present updated PolEcon Insights for Turkiye (October 2026)
Turkiye Inflation: September CPI Falls Below 30% for First Time Since 2021
After hitting 31.5% annually in August, Turkiye’s inflation eased to 29.7% in September, coming below 30% for the first time since November 2021 helped by lower food price pressures and favourable base effects.
Ukraine-Russia War Outlook: What May Happen in 2027?
Considering that U.S. President Trump continues to focus on the conflict with Iran, while the U.S.-mediated contacts in September produced limited progress and major disagreements over territory and security guarantees in Ukraine remain unresolved, our baseline scenario is that the war drags on through 2027 (80% probability). The alternative is a Russia-friendly peace deal (20%), most likely in or after H2 2027.
IslamicMacro Highlights for October 5 and 9
Turkiye and Egypt’s inflation data will be the main domestic macro releases this week, but we think oil and regional security will remain the bigger market drivers.
Inflation and Growth Rate Forecasts for 2026
We provide our in-House inflation forecasts for the 7 leading Islamic countries in focus.
Indonesia Inflation Rises to 3.3% in September as Food and Energy Pressures Intensify
Indonesia’s September inflation was released on October 1, and as we expected, the headline inflation stood at 3.3% y/y compared with 3.2% in August, which marked the highest reading since June.
Pakistan Inflation Falls in September, but Rising Producer Costs and Elevated Monthly Prices Signal Persistent Risks
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) released September inflation data on October 1. The inflation stood at 10.3% y/y down from11.1% in August supported by decelerated food inflation in September. Monthly inflation remaining above 1%, surging to 1.3% in September and PPI accelerating to 13.3% y/y in September from 11.8% in August remained concerning.
IslamicMacro Highlights for September 28-October 2
We summarize the key economic and market developments to watch across Islamic economies during the week of September 28–October 2.
- Ukraine-Russia War Outlook: What May Happen in 2027?Volkan Sezgin · 04 Oct 2026
- IslamicMacro Highlights for October 5 and 9Volkan Sezgin · 04 Oct 2026
- Egypt - PolEcon Insights (October 2026)Volkan Sezgin · 07 Oct 2026
- Turkiye PolEcon Insights (October 2026)Volkan Sezgin · 07 Oct 2026
- Pakistan Inflation Falls in September, but Rising Producer Costs and Elevated Monthly Prices Signal Persistent RisksVolkan Sezgin · 02 Oct 2026
Prof. Dr. Volkan Sezgin
Over 20 years of expertise in macroeconomics, forecasting, central bank policy analysis and international finance, across academia, public authorities and diplomatic advisory.
Dr. Sezgin directs IslamicMacro’s quantitative research architecture and macroeconomic modelling across core Islamic economies. Before founding IslamicMacro he was a Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Continuum Economics in London, and held senior advisory roles with the U.S. Mission in Türkiye, the Turkish Ministry of Economy, BOTAŞ and the European Commission’s DG ECFIN in Brussels. He is Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Europe for Applied Sciences in Berlin, and has taught at Humboldt University zu Berlin, Boğaziçi University and Atılım University.
Professional background
- Senior Emerging Markets (EM) EconomistContinuum Economics · London, UK
- Economist & Strategic AdvisorU.S. Mission in Türkiye · Ankara
- Senior Economic AnalystMinistry of Economy · Ankara
- Seconded National ExpertEuropean Commission, DG ECFIN · Brussels
- Energy & Finance SpecialistBOTAŞ Petroleum Pipeline Corporation · Ankara
Academic credentials
- Ph.D. in Economics, Law and InstitutionsUniversity of Rome Tor Vergata · Visiting Ph.D. Researcher, University of Cambridge
- M.Sc. in EconomicsUniversity of Manchester · EU Commission Jean Monnet Scholar
- MBA in Supply Chain Management & FinanceAnkara Yıldırım Beyazıt University (AYBU)
- M.Sc. in Science & Technology Policy StudiesMiddle East Technical University (METU)
- B.Sc. in EconomicsMiddle East Technical University (METU)
2026 GDP growth and inflation forecasts.
Seven core economies, one view. This is the kind of forecast table subscribers get in our research notes and in Excel.
| ECONOMY | GDP GROWTH 2026 | INFLATION 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East | ||
| Egypt | 4.7 | 13.7 |
| Saudi Arabia | -1.1 | 1.9 |
| United Arab Emirates | -0.1 | 2.4 |
| South Asia | ||
| Pakistan | 3.5 | 11.0 |
| Southeast Asia | ||
| Indonesia | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Malaysia | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| Europe | ||
| Türkiye | 2.8 | 30.5 |
Source: IslamicMacro. Forecasts, not guarantees.